星期四, 6月 21, 2007

More on NPB Hitters

這幾年NPB打者赴美挑戰的越來越多,我這幾天特別翻了05~06年的數據,整理了些NPB打者的MjEqA,列出的名單完全沒考量球員是否有意願挑戰MLB,反而是根據是否有那本錢前進大聯盟。

2005
NameREqAEQREqAMjEqA
小笠原道大.91394.998.3020.2839
松中信彦1.053118.804.3429.3224
李承燁.85965.457.2791.2624
福留孝介1.000113.838.3307.3109
青木宣親.81584.569.2775.2608

2006
NameREqAEQREqAMjEqA
小笠原道大.96298.568.3129.2941
松中信彦.97997.869.3308.3109
李承燁.994111.308.3256.3061
福留孝介1.067121.246.3515.3299
青木宣親.83996.296.2895.2722


最後補上,岩村明憲2006的數據:
.929/104.726 /.3117/.293

到今日為止,岩村的EqA為.304,比轉換數據還來得好。

星期一, 6月 11, 2007

Homer Bailey vs. Philip Hughes

趁今天在家閒著沒事,特別翻了下MLB TV來練眼睛,看了Homer Bailey的debut、Phil Hughes vs. Tex 的投球。這兩名年紀相符、同樣是2004年的1st round picks、爬上來的速度也差不多,當然特別容易被球迷拿出來說嘴、比較。

Homer Bailey據說是名火球男,fastball sits at 92~96mph and touches 98mph。
如果只看第一局的話,92~96mph,均速93.45mph,BA的說法好像是滿準確的。沒想到Bailey第二局就馬上給BA漏氣,fastball掉到88~93mph。後幾局的投球,時快時慢,整場最慢86mph,最快96mph(2顆),均速92.3mph。

特別值得一提的是,Bailey會丟cutter,而且投得還滿不錯,86~91mph,幅度還挺嚇人的。最後一局,丟了3顆疑似slider的球路,分別為84mph(2顆)、86mph。也許是Bailey累了,cutter球速變慢,不過照變化幅度來推斷,是比較接近slider。要確認Bailey有沒有slider,還要再多觀察幾場。

curveball不知是平常就是這樣,還是這場丟不出來,幾顆72~79mph的curve都滿普通的。控得也不怎樣,其中一顆74mph勉強有plus外,其他只能算solid average。

changeup投得哩哩啦啦,不過還很愛投,配球比重遠高於curve。也許是debut的原因,沒投出該有的水準。


接下來,Philip Hughes上月投了場好球,我卻一直拖到現在才看。
fastball投在85~96mph之間,範圍還真大,二~四、七局丟得特別慢,只有86~91mph,其他局數則大概投在90~96mph。四局時,轉播員有提到現場測速槍比電視轉播快。不過我對照Ron Mahay的球速,電視轉播的槍應該算是正常。整場下來,均速還是有91.2mph。

curve投在69~76mph,其中幾顆幾走下墜軌跡,視覺上有點介於Mussina、Ben Sheets之間的味道。走傳統拋物路線也滿不錯的,最差也從Joe Blanton級往上起跳。

changeup一共投了6顆,第一局81mph那兩顆還滿不錯的。

除了Hughes、Bailey外,我還滿想品嚐Tim Lincecum的火球、curve,不過據說curve有點被高估就是了。

星期日, 6月 10, 2007

Signability?

Rick Porcello, fourth-best prospect available according to BA's Top 200 Draft Prospects list,fell to Tigers at No.27 because of signability.

Rick Porcello的contract demand嚇走了不少球隊~
不少人認為Porcello是自Josh Beckett後,最好的高校投手。

Tigers這幾年也滿爽的,連一次Top5 pick也沒有,卻可以年年選到大物,不過也要有膽識就是了。

05 Cameron Maybin
06 Andrew Miller
07 Rick Porcello

有一點我不懂,Jeff Weaver這種鳥蛋一年$8 million都有人肯給,Rick Porcello這種好貨卻沒人要。Scott Boras真的有這麼恐怖嗎?Boras的要價向來很嚇人,但他也不可能ask多少就能拿多少,他只是represent his clients' interests,就算Porcello要價$10 million,給他7、8百萬Boras就一定不考慮嗎?

最後,Matt Harvey掉到3rd round(118th overall)也太扯了吧~

星期六, 6月 02, 2007

Arakaki and the others

我去年一整年沒看新垣渚投球,發現新垣渚已不是2005年那只靠fastball、slider在NPB爭兇鬥狠的two-pitch pitcher。arsenal多加了顆高速滑球、cutter。雖有不少人認為這只是名稱上的差別,但就我個人的認知,這兩顆球並不能混為一談。

我之前已提過,新垣渚slider投出來的話,plus沒有問題。硬要挑毛病的話,就是球速慢了點,5/31這場大概投在124~129km/h,最慢122km/h。
fastball穩定投在143~147km/h,最快153km/h,最慢142km/h,均速145.3km/h。這球速在NPB已夠殺了~

新垣渚的高速滑球的變化幅度、軌跡皆較相似於傳統的slider,跟松坂的gyroball也滿像的。
至於cutter的變化幅度明顯小於高速滑球,不過速度較快。另外有趣的是,新垣渚也會double-spin mechanics。就這場而言,投在140km/h以上、變化幅度較不明顯地我大都歸類於cutter。變化幅度較大、投在137~140km/h,被我認定為高速滑球的機率很高。換句話說,我是根據變化幅度的差別來判斷這兩顆球路。

說了一堆,不如直接看影片吧!

新垣渚的高速滑球、double-spin mechanics
http://www.sfu.ca/~thwang/slider-like%20cutter.mpg

http://www.sfu.ca/~thwang/mechanics.mpg

最近我意外發現川上憲伸以及朴明桓都會double-spin mechanics。不過川上的cutter很鳥,高速滑球的球速 + cutter的變化幅度。
朴明桓則是使用double-spin mechanics來投slider,127~134km/h不等,勉強有50分。他也有顆fork-like slider的球路。從慢動作來看,是slider的握法。特別的是出手瞬間時,手腕會往下扣。
看來double-spin並不是松坂的專利,但要投出速度、變化幅度兼顧的魔球,那還是要看天份的~

Doc is back?

Roy Halladay pitched seven solid shut-out innings, while striking out seven and allowing only six hits. Halladay usually is the one who has dominating stuff. His velocity appeared to be down throughout the early season. Halladay also notched his one hundred career wins in his return from an appendectomy. Although Halladay has regained some of his lost velocity, he didn’t have his best stuff. Nevertheless, it was clearly enough to shut down Ozzie's boys. His fastball was sitting at 89~92 mph with fierce sink and late movement. Halladay’s delivery is effortless and somewhat deceptive, which makes it more difficult to pick up. Halladay showed excellent command of his fastball, cutter and sweeping curveball in his return. If you ask me, I have to say that Doc wasn’t himself out there. He can use his 92~94mph sinker to hitters on both sides of plates and utilize his cutter against left-handed hitters. The cutter breaks in toward the hands of lefties 5 or 6 inches when Doc is on top of his game. In fact, his cut fastball features a wipeout action that has more break than a slider of many modest pitchers. Halladay is a competitor and should be hitting his prime; however, it remains to be seen if he can regain the 92-94 mph sinker he showed in previous years.