Clayton Kershaw

這一兩年所謂公認的大物，像是Homer Bailey，Philip Hughes，Clay Buchholz，Luke Hochevar等prospects，當初被吹捧成天之驕子、個個身懷絕技。

上來後紛紛被踢爆，Philip Hughes不再是大帝，Homer Bailey沒有火球，Luke Hochevar跟Kevin Brown比有如天壤之別，Clay Buchholz兩顆70分球路神秘消失，可說是千古奇案...

在寫Kershaw之前，我們來看看他的scouting reports：

2007年
Kershaw's stuff and body have plenty of projection, and his fastball is already well above-average. He paints both corners with 93-94mph heat, topping out at 96. His curveball is a plus pitch with 71~77mph velocity and 1-to-7 tilt. He has feel for a circle changeup that could become a third above-average pitch.

2008年
Kershaw pitches off a fastball that rests comfortably at 93-94mph. He touched 99 a handful of times.....Kershaw's heater has late, riding life with explosive finish at the plate. His 71-77 mph curveball has hard 1-to-7 tilt from his high-third-quarters arm slot. He made strides with his circle changeup during the year, and it too grades as a third plus future offering.


對照fangraph的資料

Season	FB	SL	CB	CH
2008	70.8% (93.7)	0.4% (84.0)	22.6% (73.5)	6.3% (85.4)

就球速而言，BA這兩篇沒有唬爛。fastball均速飆破93mph，又是左投，看來是貨真價實的power pitcher。curveball均速也與球探報告符合，Kershaw的stuff幾乎沒加料，在已經唬濫成災的球探界，這算是難得一見的清流了。

2008.5.25 STL vs. LAD
fastball整場90~97mph一直噴，均速94.19mph
這傢伙投球挺狂野的，球很會亂噴
這種fastball只不要太常掛在中間，投在高角度，偶爾塞顆邊角，反而有勾引打者出棒追打的效果。

curveball 55~60分不等
球速是慢了點，72~75mph，從軌跡、幅度來評比，皆屬上乘水準。這一場curveball壞球飄高居多，這樣投很危險，騙不了打者揮空就算了，稍進來一點就很容易被轟爆。

changeup 83~86mph 點綴用的球路
球探報告出現類似於could become a third above-average pitch或a third plus future offering等字言時， 大概就可以猜到這顆球了不起有50分，below-average算正常。Kershaw投了12顆changeups，兩顆有50分外，其他就.....

2008.8.17 MIL vs. LAD
fastball 91~96mph，均速93.63mph...依然火球連噴

這場的主角curveball 70~75mph
有一球慢動作明顯可看出，球本來還高高的，進壘時突然急速下墬，整場打者就被這顆變壞球的curveball玩弄，不斷地被誘拐亂揮，whiff rate高到75%，這是多麼驚天地泣鬼神的數字，太慘不人道了.....根本就是密爾瓦基大屠殺。
話說回來，我注意到curveball很少投進好球帶，不知是投不進，還是故意變壞球？反正管用就一直丟？

changeup只投了一顆，欠缺changeup的Kershaw對付右打者會很吃力，這點光看對上左打跟右打的數據就能略之一二：

vs. Left AB59、HR2、.203/.299/.373
vs. Right AB272、HR7、.283/.363/.412

Kershaw能否成為Ace，關鍵就在changeup。坦白講也不用投得多好，能產生混淆打者就夠他在NL吃香喝辣了。