這一兩年所謂公認的大物,像是Homer Bailey,Philip Hughes,Clay Buchholz,Luke Hochevar等prospects,當初被吹捧成天之驕子、個個身懷絕技。
上來後紛紛被踢爆,Philip Hughes不再是大帝,Homer Bailey沒有火球,Luke Hochevar跟Kevin Brown比有如天壤之別,Clay Buchholz兩顆70分球路神秘消失,可說是千古奇案...
在寫Kershaw之前,我們來看看他的scouting reports:
2007年
Kershaw's stuff and body have plenty of projection, and his fastball is already well above-average. He paints both corners with 93-94mph heat, topping out at 96. His curveball is a plus pitch with 71~77mph velocity and 1-to-7 tilt. He has feel for a circle changeup that could become a third above-average pitch.
2008年
Kershaw pitches off a fastball that rests comfortably at 93-94mph. He touched 99 a handful of times.....Kershaw's heater has late, riding life with explosive finish at the plate. His 71-77 mph curveball has hard 1-to-7 tilt from his high-third-quarters arm slot. He made strides with his circle changeup during the year, and it too grades as a third plus future offering.
對照fangraph的資料
| Season | FB | SL | CB | CH |
| 2008 | 70.8% (93.7) | 0.4% (84.0) | 22.6% (73.5) | 6.3% (85.4) |
就球速而言,BA這兩篇沒有唬爛。fastball均速飆破93mph,又是左投,看來是貨真價實的power pitcher。curveball均速也與球探報告符合,Kershaw的stuff幾乎沒加料,在已經唬濫成災的球探界,這算是難得一見的清流了。
2008.5.25 STL vs. LAD
fastball整場90~97mph一直噴,均速94.19mph
這傢伙投球挺狂野的,球很會亂噴
這種fastball只不要太常掛在中間,投在高角度,偶爾塞顆邊角,反而有勾引打者出棒追打的效果。
curveball 55~60分不等
球速是慢了點,72~75mph,從軌跡、幅度來評比,皆屬上乘水準。這一場curveball壞球飄高居多,這樣投很危險,騙不了打者揮空就算了,稍進來一點就很容易被轟爆。
changeup 83~86mph 點綴用的球路
球探報告出現類似於could become a third above-average pitch或a third plus future offering等字言時, 大概就可以猜到這顆球了不起有50分,below-average算正常。Kershaw投了12顆changeups,兩顆有50分外,其他就.....
2008.8.17 MIL vs. LAD
fastball 91~96mph,均速93.63mph...依然火球連噴
這場的主角curveball 70~75mph
有一球慢動作明顯可看出,球本來還高高的,進壘時突然急速下墬,整場打者就被這顆變壞球的curveball玩弄,不斷地被誘拐亂揮,whiff rate高到75%,這是多麼驚天地泣鬼神的數字,太慘不人道了.....根本就是密爾瓦基大屠殺。
話說回來,我注意到curveball很少投進好球帶,不知是投不進,還是故意變壞球?反正管用就一直丟?
changeup只投了一顆,欠缺changeup的Kershaw對付右打者會很吃力,這點光看對上左打跟右打的數據就能略之一二:
vs. Left AB59、HR2、.203/.299/.373
vs. Right AB272、HR7、.283/.363/.412
Kershaw能否成為Ace,關鍵就在changeup。坦白講也不用投得多好,能產生混淆打者就夠他在NL吃香喝辣了。